Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
15% Chance
Omani and Saudi mediation turns the battlefield change into a limited de-escalation around the Red Sea corridor. The Houthis preserve political leverage elsewhere in Yemen but pause major attacks on Bab al-Mandab shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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