Possible scenario
Sanctions Delay Sea Lion
30% Chance
The sanctions prove more disruptive because several entities named by Argentina have exposure to Latin American markets or require bank compliance clearance. Even if Argentina cannot directly stop the project, the added legal risk delays final investment decision and contracting.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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