Possible scenario
Regional Energy Shock
21% Chance
The confrontation spills into energy logistics through threats, attacks, or naval disruption in the Gulf. Because a large share of seaborne crude and LNG moves through the Strait of Hormuz, even partial disruption would create an immediate oil-price shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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