Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
Iran keeps Code 100 in place but avoids a direct attack on U.S. bases while signaling readiness through missile deployments and public warnings. Washington and Tehran both have incentives to avoid a full regional war, making controlled escalation the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.