Possible scenario
Sanctions And Diplomacy
27% Chance
Washington and European capitals respond through sanctions, export controls, and diplomatic pressure rather than military action. The focus shifts to Iran’s missile supply chain, Russian links, and enforcement against dual-use components.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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