Possible scenario
Defensive Posture Hardens
20% Chance
Israel and the United States treat the tests as evidence that Iran’s missile force is becoming more operationally ready. They reinforce air defenses, expand surveillance, and increase readiness without immediately striking Iran itself.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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