Possible scenario
Contained Military Signaling
38% Chance
Iran frames the nationwide launches as deterrence messaging rather than preparation for an imminent strike. Israel, the United States, and Gulf states raise alert levels but avoid direct retaliation, keeping the event in the category of calibrated military signaling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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