Possible scenario
Smooth Mill Ramp
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the California mill advances as a modern electric-arc-furnace project serving West Coast rebar and construction markets. Strong infrastructure demand, tariff protection, and lower-carbon procurement rules support financing and customer commitments.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Tickers
- STLD+0.5%
- NUE+0.4%
- CMC-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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