Possible scenario
Immigration Split Widens
20% Chance
The Salazar dispute becomes a template for other swing-district Republicans worried about Trump’s immigration posture. Emmer’s comments may deter some defections, but members in immigrant-heavy or suburban districts could still seek carveouts.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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