Possible scenario
Contained Legal Inquiry
45% Chance
Brazil's Federal Police and the Superior Electoral Court treat the matter as a formal evidence-gathering process rather than an immediate diplomatic rupture. Lula's government uses the investigation to signal sovereignty, while avoiding steps that would further damage trade and financial ties with Washington.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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