Possible scenario
Security De-Escalation
20% Chance
Saudi authorities improve interception rates or secure a short operational pause through regional intermediaries. Airlines begin reinstating Riyadh service, and markets unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium in oil and travel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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