Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Houthi drones continue to interrupt Riyadh operations, but Saudi air defenses prevent a wider aviation shutdown. Airlines with direct Riyadh exposure extend cancellations or reroute aircraft while most Gulf hubs remain operational.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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