Possible scenario
War Liability Nationalizes
22% Chance
Paxton's complaints become part of a broader Republican fear that the Iran war and gasoline prices are damaging Senate candidates beyond Texas. The White House faces stronger pressure to show progress on Hormuz, energy supply, or negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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