Possible scenario
Talarico Lead Hardens
36% Chance
James Talarico consolidates his early advantage as voters associate Ken Paxton with Trump, the Iran war, and higher gasoline prices. Paxton's private blame-shifting becomes a public narrative that reinforces doubts among suburban Republicans and independents.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-0.6%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.