Possible scenario
Shelter Trust Collapses
20% Chance
If residents believe shelters are unsafe, the city’s street-to-shelter strategy loses credibility even with beds available. This outcome would deepen tension between Bass’s housing-first approach, Governor Gavin Newsom’s encampment-removal order, and court limits after the 2024 Supreme Court ruling.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.