Possible scenario
Yields Pressure Extends
42% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a continuation of the rate-driven selloff, with investors trimming long-duration technology exposure after core inflation lifted Fed hike odds. A 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3% keeps valuation pressure on software, semiconductors and megacap growth shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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