Possible scenario
Courts Uphold Lula
48% Chance
Brazil's Superior Electoral Court and Supreme Federal Court reject Flávio Bolsonaro's annulment bid and move quickly to certify Lula's fourth term. This is the most likely path because Brazil's electoral judiciary has historically defended electronic voting results and Bolsonaro's legal argument over voting-hour extensions appears narrow.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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