Possible scenario
Annulment Gains Traction
16% Chance
Bolsonaro's legal team persuades enough judges that the runoff voting extension may have affected the margin, forcing an extraordinary review. This is less likely than institutional validation of Lula's win, but the ETF's plunge shows investors are already pricing a non-trivial contestation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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