Possible scenario
Diluted Budget Compromise
30% Chance
The most politically workable outcome is a partial adoption of the rhetoric but not the full €140 billion consolidation. Bond investors remain cautiously constructive, but the rally fades as the gap between headline ambition and legislative reality becomes clearer.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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