Possible scenario
Credible Austerity Reset
36% Chance
Marine Le Pen's National Rally sustains the market-friendly pivot by giving investors a clearer path to deficit reduction after France's downgrade and yield spike. French bonds continue to benefit if the proposal looks more like a binding fiscal anchor than a campaign slogan.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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