Negotiated Partial De-escalation

Iran keeps its maximal public demand for a U.S. regional exit, but Oman and Qatar broker language that allows both Tehran and Washington to claim leverage without immediate capitulation. The most likely diplomatic path is a phased maritime reopening tied to escrowed oil revenues, detainee talks, and reduced U.S. naval proximity rather than a full U.S. withdrawal.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.