Possible scenario
Managed Commercial Workaround
20% Chance
Regional exporters and importers pursue partial workarounds rather than wait for a comprehensive U.S.-Iran settlement. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, China, India, and major insurers try to keep some crude and LNG moving through pipelines, selective waivers, and tightly scheduled transits.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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