Limited Naval Escalation

The U.S. rejects Iran's demand and expands escorted convoys through the Gulf, while the IRGC continues calibrated attacks meant to impose costs without triggering a declared war. This path is highly plausible because both sides have already crossed thresholds with missile fire and tanker strikes, yet both still have incentives to avoid full-scale conflict.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.