Possible scenario
Trade Talks Advance
45% Chance
The visit produces a concrete mandate for officials to move from exploratory discussions to formal trade negotiations. This is the most likely outcome because Canada and Turkiye already began exploring a free-trade treaty in July 2026, and both governments have incentives to diversify trade partners.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- BBD.B+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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