Possible scenario
Recount Fight Follows
14% Chance
The race lands inside recount or litigation territory, with both campaigns challenging absentee and provisional ballots. The uncertainty is politically significant but has only minimal cross-market relevance unless Senate control depends on the seat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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