Possible scenario
Graham Holds Seat
48% Chance
Darline Graham converts the narrow polling edge into a general-election win, helped by South Carolina's Republican baseline and late GOP consolidation after the runoff. Trump-aligned turnout and national Republican spending keep the seat in GOP hands despite a closer-than-usual race.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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