Possible scenario
Andrews Upsets Graham
30% Chance
Annie Andrews overtakes Graham by turning the race into a referendum on Trump-aligned Republican politics and by maximizing turnout in Charleston, Columbia, and college-heavy counties. A Democratic win in South Carolina would be treated as a major political upset and could affect expectations for Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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