Possible scenario
Disruption Returns
20% Chance
The recovery in exports proves fragile as Iranian pressure or Iran-aligned attacks again threaten tanker traffic. Markets rapidly rebuild the supply-risk premium because September showed how quickly Gulf flows can be curtailed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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