Possible scenario
Diplomacy Contains Risk
25% Chance
Regional mediators use the export recovery to push for a limited maritime deconfliction arrangement. The core dispute remains unresolved, but the absence of fresh attacks lowers the odds of another near-term Hormuz shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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