Possible scenario
Sustained Energy Campaign
32% Chance
The Yanbu attack proves to be the start of a broader campaign against Saudi export infrastructure rather than a one-off strike. Markets focus on the vulnerability of the East-West pipeline, Yanbu, Abqaiq, and Ras Tanura after several attacks in less than two weeks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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