Possible scenario
Contained Yanbu Disruption
38% Chance
Saudi authorities contain the damage at Yanbu and keep most export commitments by drawing on storage, rerouting barrels, and accelerating repairs. This is the most likely path because Aramco has redundancy across ports and pipelines, while Riyadh has strong incentives to avoid signaling a prolonged outage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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