Possible scenario
Coalition Military Response
20% Chance
Riyadh, Washington, and regional partners respond with air-defense deployments, intelligence support, and limited strikes on Houthi launch infrastructure. This reduces the chance of immediate follow-on attacks but raises the risk of retaliation against Red Sea shipping and Saudi assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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