Possible scenario
Deeper Demand Slump
30% Chance
The second round of cuts proves insufficient as premium coffee traffic remains under pressure from lower-income consumer weakness, mobile-order friction, and competition from lower-priced alternatives. Investors begin to treat the closures as a symptom of a more persistent North American demand problem.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- SBUX-5.2%
- BROS-1.3%
- MCD-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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