Possible scenario
Oil Facilities Hit
28% Chance
Damage is confirmed at energy-related infrastructure, such as storage, pipeline, or processing facilities near Riyadh or connected to Aramco logistics. Even if the outage is limited, traders recall the 2019 Abqaiq precedent and price a sharper short-term oil supply premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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