Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Retaliation
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with intensified airstrikes in Yemen and tighter air defenses around Riyadh, but avoids strikes on Iranian territory. The conflict remains severe but geographically contained, and markets price a higher security premium without assuming a direct Saudi-Iran war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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