Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
18% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and possibly China press both sides to prevent the Riyadh attack from becoming a broader war. Saudi Arabia continues defensive operations but reopens a channel for a limited ceasefire or de-escalation package.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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