Possible scenario
Student Uprising Expands
28% Chance
The deployment of riot vehicles at schools backfires by turning school security into a broader symbol of regime repression. University students, families and some bazaar networks coordinate protests, raising the chance of labor action or broader unrest.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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