Possible scenario
Regime Offers De-escalation
18% Chance
The government tries to contain anger by shifting responsibility to local commanders or police units while keeping the IRGC in reserve. This path is less likely than coercion but plausible if officials fear school deployments could recreate the post-Mahsa Amini mobilization pattern.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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