Possible scenario
Crackdown Contains Protests
42% Chance
Security forces use visible deployments, arrests and internet throttling to prevent the school-linked protests from merging with the university demonstrations. This is the most likely path because the IRGC and Basij have repeatedly used rapid coercion to fragment protest networks before they become nationwide strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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