Possible scenario
Targeted Enforcement Response
30% Chance
The administration tries to satisfy GOP hawks without blowing up the Trump-Xi trade truce. Treasury and Commerce focus on Chinese intermediaries, dual-use cargoes, and Iran defense-linked entities rather than broad tariffs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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