Possible scenario
Backlash Stays Contained
45% Chance
Republican criticism remains mostly political theater, with the White House emphasizing that Trump personally warned Xi and that the trade truce still serves U.S. interests. Senate hawks demand oversight, but leadership avoids forcing an immediate break with Beijing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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