Possible scenario
Russian Preemption
20% Chance
Moscow decides that a Ukrainian Moscow-capable missile is intolerable and attempts to disrupt the program before it scales. The risk is concentrated in airstrikes, sabotage, cyber operations, and pressure on NATO logistics routes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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