Possible scenario
Moscow Strike Succeeds
25% Chance
Ukraine conducts a high-profile strike that reaches the Moscow area, proving that Russia's capital can be held at risk by Ukrainian-built weapons. The market impact depends heavily on target selection, casualties, and Moscow's public retaliation posture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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