Possible scenario
Limited military escalation
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia conducts additional limited strikes, arguing that Houthi military assets were targeted, while the Houthis respond with drones or missiles at the border. The escalation remains mostly within Yemen and the Saudi-Yemeni frontier rather than becoming a broad regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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