Possible scenario
Contained de-escalation
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the strike is treated as a serious but containable violation rather than the start of a new Yemen war. Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, Oman and the UN special envoy have incentives to preserve the post-2023 diplomatic track and the 2025 shipping truce.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.