Possible scenario
Diplomacy Stalls
30% Chance
The SAF avoids a definitive rejection but negotiates over monitoring, sequencing and RSF withdrawal demands. The US keeps the visa threat active while regional mediators try to bridge gaps before UN meetings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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