Possible scenario
Ceasefire Accepted
40% Chance
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Sudanese Armed Forces accept the US visa condition and agree to a 90-day ceasefire framework. The RSF gives a conditional parallel commitment after pressure from Washington, Riyadh, Cairo and Abu Dhabi, but implementation remains fragile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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