Possible scenario
Talks Fail Quickly
30% Chance
Student organizers reject Rama's terms as insufficient and return to mass protests in Tirana, Shkodër, Durrës, and Elbasan. The unrest remains mostly domestic but raises near-term political risk for Albania's government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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