Possible scenario
Limited Military Retaliation
22% Chance
The United States or Israel conducts limited strikes on IRGC naval assets, mine-laying craft, radar, or missile sites tied to the tanker attacks. The key uncertainty is whether Tehran absorbs the hit or retaliates against Gulf energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.