Possible scenario
Convoy Containment
35% Chance
Washington, Bahrain-based U.S. Fifth Fleet commanders, and Gulf states move quickly to keep the Strait of Hormuz open with escorted lanes and minesweeping. Iran avoids a direct clash with three U.S. carrier groups nearby, while shipping and insurance costs remain elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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